Date of Award

Spring 2026

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between place-based climate vulnerability and belief in anthropogenic climate change in Maine and New Hampshire. While exposure-based models suggest that direct experience with environmental hazards should increase climate belief, sociological research emphasizes the role of political ideology and social context in shaping attitudes. Using county-level measures from the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index combined with individual survey data from the Pine Tree State Poll and Granite State Poll, this study evaluates whether multidimensional climate vulnerability is associated with belief that climate change is happening now and is primarily caused by human activities. Results from three-step logistic regression models and predicted probability analyses show that climate belief is strongly structured by political ideology across both states. Vulnerability does not consistently predict belief and, in some cases, is associated with lower probabilities of belief, particularly in New Hampshire. By contrast, Maine exhibits a more consistent positive relationship between vulnerability and belief across several indicators. These findings suggest that vulnerability operates as a context-dependent condition rather than a direct driver of belief. This study further demonstrates that different types of vulnerability, including climate impacts, flooding, and environmental vulnerability, are associated with distinct patterns of belief, highlighting the importance of multidimensional approaches to climate risk. Overall, the findings support a social mediation framework in which climate attitudes are shaped by political identity, regional context, and the interpretation of environmental conditions. This research contributes to environmental sociology by showing that place-based vulnerability does not generate uniform patterns of belief, but instead interacts with social and political factors to shape climate belief.

Document Type

Master's Thesis

First Advisor

Thomas G Safford

Second Advisor

Rebecca Glauber

Third Advisor

Kenneth M Johnson

Degree Name

Master of Arts

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