Honors Theses and Capstones

Date Completed

Spring 2026

Abstract

As rising temperatures and variable precipitation effects are becoming increasingly prevalent in New England, as does the need to consider how these climate change-induced weather patterns affect the region's agricultural productivity and food system stability. Using annual crop yield data from the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) and growing-season climate anomaly data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), this study examines how growing-season temperature and precipitation anomalies affect seven major New England crop yields (tomatoes, potatoes, sweet corn, cranberries, carrots, lettuce (head), and apples) over a 34-year period from 1990 to 2024.

Regression and correlation analysis, along with a Baseline Fixed Effects Model, Heterogeneous Temperature Effects Model, and First-Difference Robustness Specification Model, were designed to evaluate climate-yield relationships, While results indicate that precipitation anomalies do not have a statistically significant effect on crop yields across specifications, substantial differences emerge across crop groups in response to temperature anomalies. Study results support broader recommendations, stressing the importance of advocating for agricultural policy, crop diversification, and adaptive farming practices to ensure long-term sustainable food security and economic stability in regional ecosystems.

Document Type

Undergraduate Thesis

First Advisor

Dr. Jing Wang

College or School

Paul College

Department or Program

Decision Sciences

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