Honors Theses and Capstones
Date Completed
Fall 2025
Abstract
To explore middle-power strategies, this policy paper examines the emerging bilateral defense partnership between Australia and the Philippines, scheduled for signing in 2026. Both Australia and the Philippines, as mutual defense partners to the United States, are faced with insecurity given the second Trump administration's comments towards a strict “America first” policy. Faced with constant threat from Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea, the Philippines, in particular, is vulnerable if America withdraws its military support. Conversations about the importance of middle-power-to-middle-power relationships often disregard the Philippines' role in the South China Sea conflict. China continues to claim rock formations, reefs, and sandy shoals as its own islands and has added acreage of sand to build infrastructure that allows it to claim more ocean area in the South China Sea. While America and Australia seek to protect the Free and Open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based order, the Philippines already faces direct threats from Chinese vessels and harassment.
Looking at the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration Case, various national security and development documents from both countries, and public press statements about their relationship, reveal that the two nations have similar strategic interests and have engaged in separate partnerships with similar allies. To understand the purpose of the relationship, it is easier to narrow down where the focus of the new agreement should be.
Based on the analysis, the Philippines and Australia must focus on a multifaceted defense agreement. They should prioritize covert balancing to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and increase intelligence collection. Similar to the AUKUS agreement, Australia should work to support the Philippines' capacity-building efforts. Australia must also assist with legal aspects, support future arbitrations, make public statements of disapproval, and work to recenter the narrative around the Philippines rather than China to improve public understanding of the situation. Finally, it is clear that leader-to-leader relationships remain important in defense pacts, and Filipino President Marcos Jr and Australian Prime Minister Albanese must establish a relationship that lasts beyond their administrations and remains as stable as possible.
Any action in the South China Sea will be met with Chinese disapproval; however, it is more important for the Philippines to develop a latent defensive capacity if China were to attack. Middle powers, such as Australia and the Philippines, can drive change in the international system when they work multilaterally. It is of the utmost importance that the Philippines stop prioritizing a strong relationship with the United States to spend time developing its relationships
with neo-middle-power coalitions that can build strength, interoperability, and resilience without the presence of any Great Power. The relationship with Australia provides a strong start to a new wave of multilateral action in the South China Sea that focuses on rules-based order and developing deterrence in the face of Chinese expansionism.
Document Type
Undergraduate Thesis
First Advisor
Jen Spindel
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
College or School
COLA
Department or Program
Political Science and International Affairs
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Recommended Citation
Smart, Abigail L., "Realignment in the South China Sea: Filipino-Australian Relations in the Face of Chinese Expansionism and American Isolationism" (2025). Honors Theses and Capstones. 930.
https://scholars.unh.edu/honors/930