Conflict variables in world simulations
Abstract
World modellers have neglected social and political variables in their model building, basically because of problems of quantification. Instead they have treated these factors as exogenous, which has permitted a less rigorous approach to the relationship between their inputs and the real world. Here the author introduces two sociopolitical variables—conflict and centralisation—into Forrester's World 2 model, and Boyd's modified World 2, and compares the results of a series of computer runs with the results obtained from the original models. While the propositions linking these two variables to others in the World 2 model are largely hypothetical, the stability of the modified model suggests that these linkages are authentic—and that the study's findings concerning the effect of conflict upon the world system are valid.
Department
Sociology
Publication Date
4-1-1978
Journal Title
Futures
Publisher
Elsevier
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Document Type
Article
Recommended Citation
Hamilton, L.C. 1978. “Conflict variables in world simulations.” Futures 10:128–142.
Rights
© 1978 Published by Elsevier Ltd.