Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state.

Authors

Jonathan T. Overpeck, University of Arizona
Matthew Sturm, Cold Regions Research and Engineering LaboratoryFollow
Jennifer Francis, Rutgers UniversityFollow
Donald Perovich, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
Mark Serreze, University of Colorado
Ronald Benner, University of South Carolina
Eddy C. Carmack, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
F Stuart Chapin III, University of Alaska Fairbanks
S Craig Gerlach, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Lawrence C. Hamilton, University of New HampshireFollow
Larry D. Hinzman, University of Alaska FairbanksFollow
Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Henry P. Huntington, Huntington Consulting
Jeffrey R. Key, NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service
Andrea H. Lloyd, Middlebury College
Glen M. McDonald, University of California - Los AngelesFollow
Joe McFadden, University of Minnesota
David Noone, California Institute of Technology
Terry D. Prowse, University of Victoria
Peter Schlosser, Columbia University
Charles J. Vorosmarty, University of New Hampshire - Main CampusFollow

Abstract

The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacial-interglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback-enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state.

Department

Sociology

Publication Date

8-2005

Journal Title

EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union

Publisher

Wiley

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1029/2005EO340001

Document Type

Article

Recommended Citation

Overpeck, J. T., et al. (2005), Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state, Eos Trans. AGU, 86(34), 309–313, doi:10.1029/2005EO340001.

Rights

©2005. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.