Date of Award

Spring 2025

Project Type

Dissertation

Program or Major

Natural Resources and Environmental Studies

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

First Advisor

Dr. Michael D Ferguson

Second Advisor

Dr. Lauren A Ferguson

Third Advisor

Dr. Shannon Rogers

Abstract

As of 2023, outdoor recreation participation in the United States (U.S.) reached a 15-year high, generating $1.2 trillion in economic output and supporting 5 million jobs. Concurrently, the contiguous U.S. experienced earth surface temperatures averaging above the 20th-century norm for the 27th consecutive year. Climate change presents increasing challenges for outdoor recreation, particularly in the Northeast and North Central U.S., where seasonal shifts, extreme weather events, and resource degradation are projected to acutely impact recreation patterns and management needs. New Hampshire (NH), where nearly 30% of the state is safeguarded for public use, relies heavily on outdoor recreation. As of 2023, outdoor recreation, supported 31,000 jobs, contributed $1.7 billion in wages and salaries, and accounted for 3.2% of the state’s gross domestic product. This mixed-methods dissertation examines climate-related outdoor recreation impacts in NH from both residential visitor and provider perspectives, utilizing responses to climate-related survey questions designed for inclusion in the 2024–2028 New Hampshire Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (NH SCORP).This research explores the disparities in how visitors and providers perceive climate-related impacts, and the adaptive strategies used to maintain high quality recreation experiences. Chapter Two presents a comparative analysis of providers’ and visitors’ perceptions of winter and extreme weather impacts, revealing notable differences in how these stressors are perceived. Chapter Three utilizes stress-coping theory, thematic analysis, non-parametric statistical significance tests, and structural equation modeling to examine visitor adaptation strategies. Findings suggest that significant impacts are perceived in all areas measured and reveal that while activity, spatial, and temporal substitution can mitigate some impacts, these strategies are not entirely effective, particularly for impacts related to summer conditions. Chapter Four is guided by complex adaptive systems and resilience theories and employs thematic analysis, non-parametric statistical significance tests, and structural equation modeling to assess provider perceptions of social impacts, climate-related operational impacts, and providers’ associated preferences for management strategies. Findings indicate that providers perceive significant climate-related operational impacts in all areas measured, that impacts are perceived as predominantly negative, and that providers prefer indirect management strategies to address them. In contrast, findings suggest providers prefer direct management approaches for addressing social impacts (e.g., crowding, conflict). Additionally, findings suggest that provider resilience may be reaching a critical threshold in some operational areas. The final chapter synthesizes these insights, highlighting the need for proactive, adaptive management strategies to address growing climate-related and visitation pressures in NH PPAs. This dissertation advances climate-related outdoor recreation research by utilizing CAS, stress-coping, and resilience theories to support a data-driven framework for outdoor recreation planning. Additionally, it introduces a novel empirical tool to assess climate-related operational impacts on outdoor recreation providers. Findings emphasize the value of SCORPs as a mechanism for climate adaptation planning and underscore the importance of incorporating both residential visitor and provider perspectives into this process. Moving forward, this research provides a model for integrating climate-related data collection into state recreation planning processes, enabling NH outdoor recreation providers to advance adaptation efforts and address the dual pressures of increasing visitation and climate change while ensuring the long-term sustainability of outdoor recreation experiences and the natural resources that support them.

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