Abstract
In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2024 there were 5.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than would have been expected given fertility patterns prior to the Great Recession, up from 2.1 million in 2016 and 4.7 million in 2022. There are 4 million more women aged 20–39 than in 2006, but 7 million fewer have given birth. The shift in fertility patterns has resulted in 11.8 million fewer babies in the past 17 years.
Fertility rate declines were greatest among women under 30, where childless rates increased the most. Childless rates increased modestly among women in their 30s, while fertility rates diminished minimally among women in their early 30s and increased modestly among women 35 to 49. However, the fertility gains among older women were too small to offset the significant fertility declines and increased childlessness among younger women.
The course of future childbearing and fertility remains to be seen. Certainly, some women who have delayed children may still have them, but the substantial rise in the proportion of childless women suggests that some will forego children. These fertility and child-bearing decisions have significant implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.
Department
Carsey School of Public Policy
Publication Date
Summer 9-2-2025
Series
National Issue Brief No. 192
Publisher
Durham, N.H. : Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire
Document Type
Article
Recommended Citation
Johnson, Kenneth M., "Factors Contributing to the Demographic Cliff: More U.S. Women of Childbearing Age, but Fewer Have Given Birth" (2025). Carsey School of Public Policy. 561.
https://scholars.unh.edu/carsey/561
Rights
© 2025 University of New Hampshire. All rights reserved.