Abstract
In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that only 3,606,000 babies were born in the United States between July 2023 and July 2024, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This is 43,000 fewer babies than the year before, which barely exceeds the 43-year low in 2020–2021. Births are diminishing because fertility rates are at record lows. In contrast, deaths and mortality rates diminished modestly last year, though deaths remain nearly 10 percent above pre-pandemic levels. As a result, the balance between births and deaths remains in flux.
These national trends are important, but one stark statistic illustrates the impact of diminishing fertility and higher mortality on local communities: more people died than were born in 72 percent of the nation’s 3,144 counties between April 2020 and July 2024. This is the most counties to ever suffer such a loss.
The Brief emphasizes that what is happening with natural increase, and the extremely wide incidence of natural decrease, are an important element of recent demographic trends. Given the substantial contribution that natural increase has made to the nation’s past population gains, it is important to consider its future role. Whether fertility will continue to fall is certainly an open question and one with significant implications for the nation’s future.
Department
Carsey School of Public Policy
Publication Date
Winter 3-13-2025
Series
Issue Brief No. 188
Publisher
Durham, N.H. : Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire
Document Type
Article
Recommended Citation
Johnson, Kenneth M., "Covid Mortality Diminished but Low Fertility Means Deaths Still Exceeded Births in More Than Two-Thirds of U.S. Counties" (2025). Carsey School of Public Policy. 502.
https://scholars.unh.edu/carsey/502
Rights
© 2025. University of New Hampshire. All rights reserved.
