College or School
B.A. Earth Science
Faculty Research Advisor
Climate change driven by human activities is already changing climate around the globe. New England is experiencing increases in both the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events that exacerbate flooding (Wake et al., 2006). To examine how extreme precipitation may change in the future, daily precipitation estimates derived from four statistically downscaled global climate model (AOGCM) simulations (CCSM, GFDL, HADCM3, and PCM) (Wake et al., 2014) driven by a high global emissions scenario (A1Fi) (IPCC, 2007) were analyzed. Twenty-four hour storm depth estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for two locations (Durham, NH and Lawrence, MA) (Fig. 1) for the time period of 1960 to 2099 were calculated for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return levels. GEV and EV1 distribution fits, as well as annual maximum and partial duration series, were used to estimate storm depths. Significant variability was found in the calculated storm depths for both the choice of statistical analysis and global climate model.
Sikora, Gregory D., "Modeling Future Impacts of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Lamprey River Watershed; Does Choice of Statistical Analysis Matter?" (2016). Undergraduate Research Conference (URC) Student Presentations. 12.