Detecting and predicting spatial and interannual patterns of temperate forest springtime phenology in the eastern U.S.

Authors

J P. Jenkins, University of New Hampshire - Main Campus
Rob Braswell, University of New Hampshire - Main Campus
Steve Frolking, University of New Hampshire - Main CampusFollow
John Aber, University of New Hampshire - Main CampusFollow

Abstract

We performed a diagnostic analysis of AVHRR-NDVI and gridded, temperature data for the deciduous forests of the eastern U.S., calibrating temperature accumulation model with satellite data for 1982–1993. The model predicts interannual variability in onset date based upon year-to-year changes in springtime temperature. RMS error over the period ranges from 6.9 days in the northern portion of the domain to 10.7 days in the south. The analysis revealed a relationship between temperature accumulation and satellite derived onset date (rank correlation = 0.31–0.62). The required temperature accumulation threshold can be expressed as a function of mean temperature (R² of 0.90) to facilitate predictive analysis of phenological onset, or when remote sensing data are unavailable.

Department

Earth Sciences

Publication Date

12-2002

Journal Title

Geophysical Research Letters

Publisher

Wiley

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1029/2001GL014008

Document Type

Article

Recommended Citation

Jenkins, J. P., B. H. Braswell, S. E. Frolking, and J. D. Aber, Detecting and predicting spatial and interannual patterns of temperate forest springtime penology in the eastern U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(24), 2201, doi:10.1029/2001GL014008, 2002.

Rights

Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.