Abstract
In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Andrew Smith, and Dante Scala note a greater likelihood of volatility in the New Hampshire primary because there will be many new faces among the voters who flock to the polls on January 23. The New Hampshire electorate has experienced significant turnover since the 2020 primary. More than one-fifth of New Hampshire’s potential primary voters this year are new because in 2020 they were not old enough to vote or resided somewhere else. The ideology and political party allegiances of these young people and new migrants differ significantly from those of longtime residents. In particular, both groups are more willing to take sides, rather than adhere to the political center.
The storied tradition of the New Hampshire primary includes a number of surprise finishes that have confounded campaigns and pundits. As we await the results next Tuesday, one factor that may increase volatility is the number of new voters who choose to participate for the very first time.
Department
Carsey School of Public Policy
Publication Date
Winter 1-17-2024
Series
Issue Brief No. 178
Publisher
Durham, N.H. : Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire
Document Type
Article
Recommended Citation
Johnson, Kenneth M.; Smith, Andrew; and Scala, Dante, "Large Pool of New Voters Could Add Volatility to New Hampshire Primary" (2024). The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository. 480.
https://scholars.unh.edu/carsey/480
Rights
Copyright 2024. Carsey School of Public Policy. These materials may be used for the purposes of research, teaching, and private study. For all other uses, contact the copyright holder.