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Title

Conflict variables in world simulations

Abstract

World modellers have neglected social and political variables in their model building, basically because of problems of quantification. Instead they have treated these factors as exogenous, which has permitted a less rigorous approach to the relationship between their inputs and the real world. Here the author introduces two sociopolitical variables—conflict and centralisation—into Forrester's World 2 model, and Boyd's modified World 2, and compares the results of a series of computer runs with the results obtained from the original models. While the propositions linking these two variables to others in the World 2 model are largely hypothetical, the stability of the modified model suggests that these linkages are authentic—and that the study's findings concerning the effect of conflict upon the world system are valid.

Publication Date

4-1-1978

Journal Title

Futures

Publisher

Elsevier

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(78)90067-8

Document Type

Article

Rights

© 1978 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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