Honors Theses and Capstones

Date of Award

Spring 2025

Project Type

Senior Honors Thesis

College or School

PAUL

Program or Major

Business Administration

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

First Advisor

Michael Goldberg

Abstract

The value of the United States’ national debt measured as a share of its economic output, otherwise known as its debt-to-GDP ratio, is projected to reach an all-time high and continue to climb over the span of the next 30 years. This can be attributed to a combination of tax and spending policies which generate annual budget deficits as well as a projected slowdown of economic growth. A major factor contributing to this situation is the slowing growth of the labor force in the United States. As time goes on, the growth of the U.S. population slows, and immigration becomes increasingly more important in growing the U.S. population and labor force. The proposed policies regarding border security and immigration by the administration of President Donald J. Trump pose concerns for the growth of the labor force in the U.S. and thus the growth of economic output and the debt-to-GDP ratio. This thesis aims to estimate the effect which the proposed immigration policies of the current presidential administration will have on the long-run trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio. I use data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which shows long-run projections for immigration, the labor force, economic growth, the federal budget, and the debt-to-GDP ratio to make new projections for these values after accounting for changes in immigration policy. The results show a new projected long-run trajectory for the debt-to-GDP ratio.

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