Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Abstract
We investigate the long-term persistence of solar energetic particle (SEP) time series by means of four different methods: Hurst rescaled range R/S analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, centered moving average analysis, and the fluctuation of natural time under the time reversal method. For these analyses, we use data sets from the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun instrument suite on board NASA's Parker Solar Probe. Background systematic noise is modeled using cross-correlation analysis between different SEP energy channels and subtracted from the original data. The use of these four methods for deriving the time-series persistence allows us to (i) differentiate between quiet- and active-Sun periods based on the values of the corresponding self-similarity exponents alone (ii) identify the onset of an ongoing activity well before it reaches its maximum SEP flux (iii) reveal an interesting fine structure when activity is observed and (iv) provide, for the first time, an estimate of the maximum SEP flux of a future storm based on the entropy change of natural time under time reversal.
Department
Physics
Publication Date
7-1-2024
Journal Title
The Astrophysical Journal
Publisher
American Astronomical Society
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Document Type
Article
Recommended Citation
N. V. Sarlis et al 2024 ApJ 969 64 DOI 10.3847/1538-4357/ad479d
Rights
© 2024. The Author(s).
Comments
This is an open access article published by American Astronomical Society in The Astrophysical Journal in 2024, available online: https://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad479d