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Abstract
Globally, winter temperatures are rising, and snowpack is shrinking or disappearing entirely. Despite previous research and published literature reviews, it remains unknown whether biomes across the globe will cross important thresholds in winter temperature and precipitation that will lead to significant ecological changes. Here, we combine the widely used Köppen–Geiger climate classification system with worst-case-scenario projected changes in global monthly temperature and precipitation to illustrate how multiple climatic zones across Earth may experience shifting winter conditions by the end of this century. We then examine how these shifts may affect ecosystems within corresponding biomes. Our analysis demonstrates potential widespread losses of extreme cold (<−20°C) in Arctic, boreal, and cool temperate regions. We also show the possible disappearance of freezing temperatures (<0°C) and large decreases in snowfall in warm temperate and dryland areas. We identify important and potentially irreversible ecological changes associated with crossing these winter climate thresholds.
Department
Earth Systems Research Center
Publication Date
11-2024
Journal Title
Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
Publisher
Annual Reviews
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Document Type
Article
Recommended Citation
Alexandra R. Contosta, Kyle A. Arndt, Helen M. Baulch, Nora J. Casson, Adrian Harpold, Toni Lyn Morelli, Alexej P.K. Sirén, and Pamela H. Templer. (2024) Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2024. 55:271–300
Comments
This is an open access article published by Annual Reviews in Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics in 2024, available online: https://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110421-102101