https://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110421-102101">
 

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Globally, winter temperatures are rising, and snowpack is shrinking or disappearing entirely. Despite previous research and published literature reviews, it remains unknown whether biomes across the globe will cross important thresholds in winter temperature and precipitation that will lead to significant ecological changes. Here, we combine the widely used Köppen–Geiger climate classification system with worst-case-scenario projected changes in global monthly temperature and precipitation to illustrate how multiple climatic zones across Earth may experience shifting winter conditions by the end of this century. We then examine how these shifts may affect ecosystems within corresponding biomes. Our analysis demonstrates potential widespread losses of extreme cold (<−20°C) in Arctic, boreal, and cool temperate regions. We also show the possible disappearance of freezing temperatures (<0°C) and large decreases in snowfall in warm temperate and dryland areas. We identify important and potentially irreversible ecological changes associated with crossing these winter climate thresholds.

Department

Earth Systems Research Center

Publication Date

11-2024

Journal Title

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics

Publisher

Annual Reviews

Document Type

Article

Comments

This is an open access article published by Annual Reviews in Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics in 2024, available online: https://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110421-102101

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