https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017">
 

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Authors

Katja Frieler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Stefan Lange, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Franziska Piontek, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jacob Schewe, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Lila Warszawski, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Fang Zhao, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Louise Chini, University of Maryland
Sebastien Denvil, Institut Pierre-Simon
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tobias Geiger, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Kate Halladay, Met Office Hadley Centre
George Hurtt, University of Maryland
Matthias Mengel, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Daisuke Murakami, Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Sebastian Ostberg, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Alexander Popp, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Riccardo Riva, Delft University of Technology
Miodrag Stevanovic, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Tatsuo Suzuki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Jan Volkholz, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Eleanor Burke, Met Office Hadley Centre
Philippe Ciais, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment
Kristie Ebi, University of Washington
Tyler D. Eddy, Dalhousie University
Joshua Elliott, Columbia University
Eric Galbraith, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Simon N. Gosling, University of Nottingham
Fred Hattermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Thomas Hickler, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F)
Jochen Hinkel, Global Climate Forum
Christian Hof, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F)
Veronkia Huber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jonas Jagermeyr, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Valentina Krysanova, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Rafael Marce, Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA)
Hannes Muller Schmied, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F)
Ioanna Mouratiadou, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Don Pierson, Uppsala University
Derek P. Tittensor, Dalhousie University
Robert Vautard, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment
Michelle van Vliet, Wageningen University
Matthias F. Biber, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F)
Richard A. Betts, Met Office Hadley Centre
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Delphine Deryng, Columbia University
Stephen E. Frolking, University of New Hampshire, DurhamFollow
Chris D. Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre
Heike K. Lotze, Dalhousie University
Hermann Lotze-Campen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Ritvik Sahajpal, University of Maryland
Kirsten Thonicke, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hanqin Tian, Auburn University
Yoshiki Yamagata, Center for Global Environmental Studies

Abstract

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Publication Date

11-30-2017

Journal Title

Geoscientific Model Development

Publisher

European Geosciences Union (EGU)

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Document Type

Article

Comments

This is an article published by European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Geoscientific Model Development in 2017, available online: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

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