Abstract

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that new National Center for Health Statistics data for 2024 show a slight increase in annual births and the birth rate from 2023. Even with the uptick, both the number of births and the birth rate were near 40-year lows, and there is no evidence of a significant increase in fertility rates in the new data.

The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. There would have been 11.8 million more births in the last 17 years had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2024. The expense and limited availability of childcare, uneven access to family leave, later marriage, delayed childbearing, and greater educational and employment opportunities for women likely contributed to the fertility declines.

A critical long-term question is: what impact has the economic, social, and epidemiological turbulence of the past 17 years had on overall fertility? Early expectations were that many births delayed by this turbulence would be made up later, but the continuing low birth rates suggest that many births were foregone. The long-term decline in births has implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force and Social Security.

Department

Carsey School of Public Policy

Publication Date

Spring 4-23-2025

Series

National Issue Brief No. 190

Publisher

Durham, N.H. : Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire

Document Type

Article

Rights

© 2025. University of New Hampshire. All rights reserved.

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