We performed a diagnostic analysis of AVHRR-NDVI and gridded, temperature data for the deciduous forests of the eastern U.S., calibrating temperature accumulation model with satellite data for 1982–1993. The model predicts interannual variability in onset date based upon year-to-year changes in springtime temperature. RMS error over the period ranges from 6.9 days in the northern portion of the domain to 10.7 days in the south. The analysis revealed a relationship between temperature accumulation and satellite derived onset date (rank correlation = 0.31–0.62). The required temperature accumulation threshold can be expressed as a function of mean temperature (R2 of 0.90) to facilitate predictive analysis of phenological onset, or when remote sensing data are unavailable.
Geophysical Research Letters
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Jenkins, J. P., B. H. Braswell, S. E. Frolking, and J. D. Aber, Detecting and predicting spatial and interannual patterns of temperate forest springtime penology in the eastern U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(24), 2201, doi:10.1029/2001GL014008, 2002.
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.